Donald Trump's Mass Deportation Plans: Beneficial or Detrimental?

Investigating the economic and social ramifications of mass deportation.

On November 18th, president-elect Donald Trump reaffirmed on Truth Social his plans to declare a national emergency and involve the U.S. military in a large-scale deportation of undocumented immigrants. Speaking at a campaign rally in New York City’s Madison Square Garden, Mr. Trump pledged:

“On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out. I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, then kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible.”

Vice President-elect JD Vance echoed this plan, emphasizing that the administration would begin with targeting the “most violent criminals” and eventually extending to those with Temporary Protected Status. 

While the proposal has garnered support among those advocating for stricter immigration enforcement, it also raises questions about its economic and social impacts on the US population and whether alternative approaches might better address immigration challenges. 

Contrary to what many believe, undocumented immigrants are in essence crucial to the nation’s economic infrastructure. In order to grow, the US economy requires immigrants to spur job growth and also undercut inflation. Many important industries continue to rely on immigrant labor as birth rates in the US drop and an increased number of citizens retire. These industries will face severe labor shortages should Mr. Trump enact his deportation plans. Though supporters of mass deportation argue that the huge influx of undocumented immigrant workers is displacing US-born workers, studies indicate that they are in reality filling jobs of little interest to citizens. Indeed, undocumented immigrant workers account for 50% of all field and crop workers, making the success of America’s farm industry reliant on these workers. 

The American immigration Council estimates that Mr. Trump’s plan will cost 88 billion dollars a year—nearly four times NASA’s budget. Regardless of whether Congress approves, Mr. Trump states that he will declare a national emergency to use military funds for his deportation plans. For perspective, with this same amount, the US could build almost three million new homes. Is the financial cost of mass deportation worth the potential economic disruption?

Socially, mass deportation raises ethical questions. Many undocumented immigrants have lived in the US for years, if not decades, building lives, raising children, and paying taxes. Deporting these individuals could lead to widespread family separation, forcefully separating US-born children from their parents and creating inhumane emotional hardships. Under the “zero-tolerance policy” Mr. Trump adopted in his first term of office for undocumented immigrants arriving at the southern border, parents were sent to the immigration detention center to await deportation, while their children were sent to separate facilities owned by the Department of Health and Human Services or to other foster homes. A government report in September 2019 stated that the immigrant children put in government custody in 2018 frequently experienced intense trauma that manifested in symptoms that could significantly hinder their later success in academics or the workplace. It is clear that mass deportation would cause family separation at a scale larger than what Mr. Trump has ever done in his first term of office. 

As the senior director of refugee advocacy at Human Rights First, Robyn Barnard warns, “Families will be torn apart, businesses left without vital employees, and our country will be left to pick up the pieces for years to come.” 

Given the need for immigrant labor and their contributions to the nation, the government should reform and improve social mechanisms to maximize the ability of law-abiding (aside from the blemish of illegally entering the US) undocumented immigrants to support the US economy. 

One of the most effective ways to reduce undocumented immigration is to expand and streamline legal pathways for individuals seeking to enter and work in the United States. The current immigration system is often criticized for being overly complex and constantly plagued by backlogs, making it difficult for those who meet eligibility criteria to obtain legal status. 

Increasing the number of available visas in industries facing labor shortages would provide a lawful avenue for workers to enter or remain in the US. Though existing guest worker programs like the H-2A and H-2B visa programs currently facilitate agricultural and non-agricultural works respectively, they are limited in scope and often burdened by bureaucratic inefficiencies. Expanding these programs to cover more industries and simplifying the application process would also offer viable solutions to meet the labor needs of various industries while providing legal status and protection to immigrants at the same time.

Immigration remains a complex and deeply polarizing issue, but solutions exist that balance enforcement with compassion and practicality—mass deportation is not one of them. 

Jessica Wu