An Anvil 2024 Election Update: Trump’s Primary Victories Expose His Vulnerabilities

In an exceptional presidential election year, so-called incumbent Donald Trump engages in a race to the bottom.

Donald Trump’s win over Nikki Haley in Michigan was no surprise–as demonstrated over the course of  this Republican primary, Mr. Trump’s dominance reflects his position as effectively the incumbent Republican candidate. More notable in the primary contests we’ve seen so far, however, has been Ms. Haley’s presence–she won nearly 20% of the vote in Iowa, a strong showing from a moderate candidate; almost 45% of the vote in New Hampshire in what was a success for her; and just short of 40% in South Carolina, which, while being the state she governed, is highly deferential to the former president. Her numbers clearly point to a sizable faction of the Republican electorate who want a Republican other than Mr. Trump, and if a number of those Republicans support Joe Biden, then Mr. Trump is in trouble. 

In a campaign lacking in real policy proposals, Mr. Trump has ignored courting the independent voters necessary to win the general election in the traditional sense. Ms. Haley, meanwhile, has taken policymaking somewhat more seriously, putting out a moderateish approach to abortion; arguing the need for continued support for Ukraine; pledging to keep China in check; and cutting government spending. Nevertheless, as of February 28, Mr. Trump has 122 delegates to Ms. Haley’s 24.

Mr. Trump’s candidacy is also affecting current policymaking in Washington. In early February this year Senate and House Republicans killed a bipartisan bill to fund border security and make asylum claims harder to get approved largely to allow Mr. Trump to use the border as a political weapon against Mr. Biden. A vote for Mr. Trump seems to mean three things: support in defense of his numerous criminal trials, revenge on the political left, and a desire to return to the pre-COVID-19 world. Rather than real policy objectives, Trump voters simply want the supposedly better days before lockdown and the crippling inflation that followed, a hit at liberals whose promotion of “woke” ideology has alienated and angered the Republican base, and to buttress their “hero” against his criminal trials, some of which are indeed clearly partisan (Fulton County, Manhattan Hush-Money, and the recent civil fraud ruling delivered in Manhattan). 

All of this makes it especially challenging for Ms. Haley to make a more meaningful dent in Mr. Trump’s lead in the primary contests. However, she has decided to fight on through Super Tuesday, which occurs on March 5, making her case for a conservative alternative who isn’t embattled with 91 felony counts and half of a billion dollars to give in damages (if Trump loses his appeals) from civil trials, who has incurred two impeachments, a general election defeat in 2020, and is 77 years old. Ms. Haley, 51, could be making her case as the de facto 2028 nominee should Mr. Trump win the nomination and then lose to Mr. Biden; alternatively, she could be waiting out for Mr. Trump to be swept off the ballot should the Supreme Court rule that he “engaged in insurrection” on January 6th, 2021, or if Mr. Trump is convicted in one of his criminal trials and loses political support. In a race likely to still have many more wildcards to come, the three main candidates vying for the White House appear dependent on their opponents’ own demise rather than focusing on how good governance can nurture the continuation of the American Dream.

George Thornton